Winning six of 10 bets can leave you down money. Winning four of 10 can leave you ahead. The difference is in the odds and the amount risked on each bet.
Sports betting ROI measures net profit against total stakes. Win rate counts winning bets. To read a record accurately, you need both, along with the prices, stakes and reporting period.
Every record below is hypothetical. The dollar amounts make the math easy to check. They aren't stake recommendations or PicksOffice results.
Start with four separate numbers
For ordinary cash bets settled as wins or losses, use these definitions:
| Metric | Calculation | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | Wins ÷ (wins + losses) × 100 | Share of decided bets that won |
| Total stakes | Sum of the amounts risked | Betting volume in dollars |
| Net profit | Total cash returned − total stakes | Dollars won or lost |
| ROI | Net profit ÷ total stakes × 100 | Profit or loss per dollar risked |
Cash returned includes the original stake when it's returned. A winning $100 bet that returns $150 produces $50 in profit. Counting all $150 as profit would count your own $100 as earnings.
Use the same set of bets for profit and stakes. A settlement-based report includes bets settled within its stated dates. Keep pending bets outside that calculation and list them separately. With no decided bets, win rate is undefined. With no included stakes, ROI is undefined.
The odds determine what a win pays
DraftKings' explanation of American odds distinguishes the amount risked from the profit on a win. Negative odds show how much you risk to profit $100. Positive odds show the profit from risking $100.
For a winning cash bet:
- At negative odds, profit = stake × 100 ÷ the absolute odds value.
- At positive odds, profit = stake × odds ÷ 100.
At -200, a $100 stake wins $50 in profit and returns $150 total. At +200, a $100 stake wins $200 in profit and returns $300 total. A losing $100 bet loses $100 at either price.
A 60% record can lose money
Consider 10 bets risking $100 each, all at -200. Six win and four lose. There are no pushes, voids, cash-outs or bonus bets.
The six wins produce 6 × $50 = $300 in profit. The four losses cost 4 × $100 = $400. Net profit is $300 − $400 = -$100.
Now compare that with 10 bets risking $100 each at +200. Four win and six lose. Winning bets produce 4 × $200 = $800 in profit, while losses cost $600. Net profit is $200.
| Hypothetical record | Odds on every bet | Total stakes | Win rate | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Six wins, four losses | -200 | $1,000 | 60% | -$100 | -10% |
| Four wins, six losses | +200 | $1,000 | 40% | $200 | 20% |
You can check the totals another way. The first record returns $900 across its six winning tickets. Subtract $1,000 staked to get -$100. The second returns $1,200 across four winning tickets, leaving $200 after subtracting the stakes.
Neither example establishes which prices you should bet or predicts future results. The outcomes were chosen to show why a hit rate alone can't establish profitability.
Break-even win rate depends on price
With equal stakes at one price and only wins or losses, the break-even win rate is:
Stake ÷ (stake + profit from one win) × 100
At -200, that is $100 ÷ $150, or about 66.67%. At +200, it's $100 ÷ $300, or about 33.33%. Those percentages describe the win rate needed to break even at each price. They don't establish the actual chance of winning.
The implied probability guide covers the connection between odds and percentages.
When prices vary, calculate each ticket's profit from its actual odds. An average American-odds number can mislead. One $100 win at -200 and one at +200 produce $250 in combined profit. Averaging the signed prices gives zero, which isn't a usable American-odds price.
Different stakes can reverse the result
Win rate gives every bet the same weight. Dollar profit gives larger stakes more weight.
Take two hypothetical bets at +100. One wins and one loses:
| Stake on winner | Stake on loser | Total stakes | Net profit | Win rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $300 | $400 | -$200 | 50% | -50% |
| $300 | $100 | $400 | $200 | 50% | 50% |
The odds and win rate match. The amount risked on each outcome changes the dollars earned or lost. This is an accounting example, not a reason to increase stakes.
Calculate combined ROI from combined profit divided by combined stakes. Don't take a simple average of individual bet returns when stakes differ. In the first row, averaging the winner's 100% return and the loser's -100% return would produce 0%, hiding the actual -50% ROI.
ROI and bankroll growth use different denominators
Suppose a hypothetical bettor starts a period with $1,000, stakes $2,000 across settled bets and earns $100 in net profit. Assume no deposits, withdrawals, bonuses, fees or pending bets at either endpoint.
- Betting ROI is $100 ÷ $2,000 × 100 = 5%.
- Bankroll growth is $100 ÷ $1,000 × 100 = 10%.
- Ending bankroll is $1,100.
Total stakes can exceed the starting bankroll because returned funds can be wagered again during the period. Total stakes measure cumulative betting volume, not the amount held in the account at one time.
A deposit also increases an account balance without creating betting profit. Reconcile deposits, withdrawals and other adjustments separately before describing a balance change as betting performance. The bankroll management guide addresses staking and risk beyond this calculation.
State how unusual settlements enter the record
The examples use only ordinary cash wins and losses. For a broader report, write down the accounting rules before comparing results. This guide uses the following convention, not a universal reporting standard:
- Pushes: When the full cash stake is returned, record zero profit. Exclude the push from wins plus losses, but include its stake in the ROI denominator.
- Voids: When the full cash stake is returned, record zero profit and exclude the voided stake from this report's ROI denominator. Retain the ticket in the log.
- Cash-outs: Track them separately from the ordinary win-loss record. A cash-out report should subtract the original cash stake from the actual cash received and disclose its included stakes.
- Bonus bets: Keep promotional stakes and credits separate from the cash-bet calculation. Use the ticket's actual terms and cash return when reporting their contribution.
Different denominator choices can change ROI without changing profit. If a record has $100 profit on $1,000 in decided stakes plus a $100 push, excluding the push gives 10% ROI. Including it under this guide's convention gives $100 ÷ $1,100, or about 9.09%.
Keep enough detail to reproduce the result
A usable betting log needs the ticket or selection, accepted odds, cash stake, settlement date, outcome, total cash returned and net profit. Add flags for pushes, voids, cash-outs and promotional funding. Record placement dates too if you want to compare a placement-based report with a settlement-based one.
For comparisons, show the date range, number of bets, win-loss record, prices, total stakes, net profit, ROI and settlement convention. If you report units, state their dollar value and whether that value changed.
Even a correctly calculated positive ROI doesn't establish repeatable skill. These small examples demonstrate arithmetic only. The sample-size guide discusses interpreting records beyond the calculation. Preserve the full period, including losses, so another reader can reproduce the result from the tickets.