Evaluate whether a bet is +EV or -EV based on your true win probability.
EV = p × profit if win - (1 - p) × stake
EV% = EV / stake × 100
Break-even probability = 1 / decimal odds
A $100 bet at +100 with a 55% win estimate has a modeled expected value of $10 per bet.
Use the result as a decision aid and keep the assumptions visible.
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