Stars @ Wild

Minnesota is still live here because the goalie matchup is tighter than the market is pricing and Dallas is missing a major piece up front.

The goalie numbers do not lean Dallas the way the badge does

Jesper Wallstedt brings a .91568 save percentage with a 2.61 goals against average across 35 games. Jake Oettinger is sitting at .89941 with a 2.59 goals against average in 54 games. The names are not being priced the same as the actual save numbers.

Minnesota has already proven it can handle this matchup

The Wild have won three of the last five meetings with Dallas and each of the last two games in the current series. That is enough recent proof to trust Minnesota in another tight spot.

Dallas is still missing a key center

Roope Hintz remains out for Dallas, and he is normally part of the offensive backbone of this team. That matters in a game where one missing top-six driver can swing possession and power-play quality.

The home side still has the star finisher

Kirill Kaprizov closed the season with 45 goals and 89 points in 78 games. When Minnesota is getting that kind of finishing threat at home and the expected goalie edge on percentage, the moneyline is playable.

Decision

Wild ML is playable because Wallstedt has posted the better save percentage, Minnesota has won the last two in the matchup, and Dallas is still skating without Hintz.