Washington's five-on-five offense is the reason for Capitals moneyline against the Senators. The Caps have scored 3.41 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five through 15 games this season, third in the NHL.
Ottawa has scored 2.61 per 60 through 18 games. Washington also has the higher five-on-five expected-goal share, 54.5% to Ottawa's 52.4%, using the same model.
Ottawa has had little power-play scoring to offset that gap. Its power play has scored 5.01 goals per 60 minutes this season, 31st in the NHL.