Canadiens @ Lightning
Montreal already won twice in Tampa this month, finished level with the Lightning on 106 points, and catches plus money in a series that has already been a toss-up.
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Montreal does not need to dominate this matchup. It just needs this price to be too long.
The Canadiens already won twice in Tampa this month, including a 4-3 road win on April 19 and a 4-1 road win on March 31. This is not some blind dog shot against a team that has owned the matchup.
The standings support that too. Both clubs finished with 106 points. Tampa won 50 games, Montreal won 48, and the season series finished 4-4.
Current form does not force a Lightning premium either. Tampa is 4-6 over its last ten. Montreal is 5-5. The gap is smaller than this number suggests.
Montreal gets Jakub Dobes confirmed in net, and the top-end scoring is real with Cole Caufield coming off a 51-goal season. Plus money is enough when the matchup has already played like a coin flip.
