I like Commanders +2.5 because Jayden Daniels' running gives Washington a credible way to stay within a couple of points of the Giants.
Daniels ran for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 carries in their 27-27 Week 5 tie. New York allowed Philadelphia quarterback Joe Milton III another 64 rushing yards on 9 carries last week.
The Giants rank third in blitz rate but last in pressure rate at 18.9%. Washington ranks sixth in ESPN's pass-block win rate, giving Daniels a chance to exploit those extra rushers.
The Giants rank among the NFL's bottom five in sacks allowed.
Washington's 12 takeaways are tied for eighth in the NFL, with 2 coming against the Rams last week.