Chicago has scored 31, 30 and 34 points in Caleb Williams' three games back. The Bears' ability to finish drives is the strongest reason for Over 46.5 against the Buccaneers.
They've scored touchdowns on 11 of 13 red-zone possessions in that stretch, including 4 on 4 trips against Seattle. One of the other possessions ended with a kneel-down.
When Tampa Bay plays Cover 2, its inside linebacker has to carry Colston Loveland up the seam. Loveland has at least 6 catches and 65 receiving yards in each of his last three games.
The Bucs average 5.1 yards per carry this season, while Chicago has allowed 4.4 through eight games. Tampa Bay ran for 258 yards at Carolina and 324 against Atlanta.