I like New Mexico -17.5 because the Lobos have the stronger rushing matchup on both sides of the ball.
Through 9 games, New Mexico averages 213.1 rushing yards, 15th in the FBS. UNLV allows 207.7 per game, and Wyoming just ran for 351 against the Rebels.
New Mexico has turned that rushing production into 28 touchdowns, compared with UNLV's 13. The Lobos have a way to keep scoring here without asking their passing game to carry the offense.
The Rebels average 174.0 rushing yards per game, while New Mexico allows 71.6, third in the FBS.
New Mexico also allows an FBS-low 10.9 points per game. I'm counting on the Lobos limiting UNLV's scoring enough for their rushing touchdowns to create an 18-point margin.