I like Air Force -13.5 because its rushing attack and red-zone finishing give it a way to pull away from San José St.
Through nine games, the Falcons lead the Mountain West with 332 rushing yards per game. They've run 569 times against 77 pass attempts.
Air Force converts 51.2% of third downs, best in the conference. San Jose State is ninth at 30.4% through 10 games. I expect Air Force to sustain drives more consistently than the Spartans.
Finishing those drives with touchdowns is the case for laying nearly two touchdowns. Air Force has scored touchdowns on 25 of 39 red-zone trips, compared with 14 of 30 for San Jose State. The Spartans have also allowed touchdowns on 21 of 33 opponent red-zone trips.