Liberty -21 is my play because MTSU's run defense is a poor match for the Flames' ground game.
Through nine games, Liberty leads CUSA with 205.0 rushing yards per game. MTSU allows 190.3, ninth in the 10-team league.
Deshawn Purdie also directs CUSA's most efficient passing offense. MTSU allows the league's most yards per pass attempt, giving Liberty a second way to build the margin.
MTSU then has to score against a defense allowing a CUSA-low 13.6 points per game. Liberty has held all five conference opponents to 14 or fewer.
Liberty's two conference home games finished 35-3 against Sam Houston and 49-10 against FIU.