I'm taking Under 59 in Louisville–North Carolina because Louisville's third-down stops give UNC less room to sustain scoring drives.
The Cardinals have allowed a 30.9% third-down conversion rate through nine games, third in the 17-team ACC. That directly tests a UNC offense converting 45.9%, fifth in the conference.
Louisville has allowed touchdowns on 15 of 32 red-zone trips, compared with 23 of 33 for UNC's offense over the same nine-game sample.
At the other end, UNC has allowed 17 touchdowns in 30 red-zone possessions. Louisville's offense has converted 25 of 36, so the Tar Heels have held opponents to a lower touchdown rate than the Cardinals have produced.
UNC has allowed 22.8 points per game and Louisville 25.9 through nine games each. Those averages add to 48.7 points, more than 10 below the total.