I'm taking Under 49 in Louisiana at UL Monroe because Louisiana's ball control should limit a low-scoring Warhawks offense.
Through nine games, Louisiana has run 382 times against 220 pass attempts. It holds the ball for 33:20 per game, compared with 26:40 for opponents.
UL Monroe ranks 13th of 14 Sun Belt teams at 20.1 points per game through nine games. Louisiana allows a conference-low 323.0 yards per game over the same sample.
The Warhawks leaned on the run in Saturday's 19-17 win at Arkansas State. Austin Carlisle handled 19 of their 49 carries, and UL Monroe held possession for 35:32.
Louisiana beat Arkansas State 23-20 and Troy 33-6. UL Monroe beat those same opponents 19-17 and 21-14. All four games finished below 49 points.