I like UCLA -9.5 because the Bruins can build a margin on the ground while limiting Illinois' rushing attack.
Through nine games, UCLA leads the Big Ten with 213.2 rushing yards per game. Wayne Knight has a conference-leading 13 rushing touchdowns.
Illinois averages 155.3 rushing yards per game. UCLA allows 87.7, 10th in FBS, and has surrendered only three runs of at least 20 yards through nine games.
That makes Illinois' passing game carry more of the scoring load in my read. UCLA's opponents have converted 26.4% of third downs, compared with Illinois' 45.9% offensive rate through nine games.
The ground game and third-down defense give UCLA a way to sustain a two-score lead. Its last four wins came by 10, 18, 27 and 14 points.