I'm taking Ball State +2.5 because its running backs give the Cardinals a way to keep pace with Buffalo.
TJ Horton and Jalen Bonds make Ball State one of just 9 FBS teams with 2 players averaging at least 5.6 yards per carry on at least 60 attempts this season.
Bonds ran for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns at UMass last week. Buffalo gave up 196 rushing yards to Miami in its last game.
Keldric Luster also led a 75-yard touchdown drive to tie UMass with 25 seconds left in regulation.
Ball State has scored 32, 34 and 30 points in its last three games. Buffalo allowed 24 and 31 in its last two. I expect the Cardinals to keep trading scores, with an outright win or a loss by 2 enough to cover.