I'm taking UMass Lowell +11 because I expect its ball security and foul shooting to keep Lowell within single digits of UMass.
Lowell committed 16 turnovers and forced 25 against Merrimack and Marist. UMass committed 27 and forced 13 against Troy and Boston College. That's each team's first 2 Division I games.
Christian Jones played 36 minutes against Marist, with 4 assists and no turnovers. Lowell allowed just 3 points off turnovers in that 63-61 win.
Lowell also made 31 of 42 free throws across those 2 games, compared with UMass's 16 of 29 in its 2 games.