I'm taking Toledo -11 because its turnover pressure matches Detroit Mercy's ball-security problems.
Detroit Mercy committed 37 turnovers and forced just 12 in its opening games at Marquette and Xavier. That's a direct matchup for Mynor Strong, who leads the MAC with 4.0 steals per game.
Toledo has protected the ball at the other end, committing 5 turnovers to Marshall's 16 and 8 to Wright State's 15.
Toledo outscored Marshall 22-9 off turnovers, then Wright State 15-5. I'm counting on those extra scoring chances to help build the 12-point margin needed here.