I'm taking Tennessee St +30 because Tennessee has been allowing the extra shots and foul-line trips the Tigers generated against Murray State.
TSU made 25 of 35 free throws in that Division I opener. Ty-Laur Johnson went 8-for-10. Tennessee's first two opponents, Wofford and Radford, took 40 free throws combined.
TSU also grabbed 13 offensive rebounds against Murray State's nine, producing a 10-8 advantage in second-chance points.
Tennessee has allowed 13 offensive rebounds per game through those first two games, compared with 10 of its own. More second chances and points at the line give TSU a way to keep the full-game deficit below 30.