I like Saint Joseph's -4.5 because the Hawks' ball security and free-throw opportunities give them ways to build a lead against Penn.
Through three games, Saint Joseph's has committed 8.7 turnovers per game and forced 20.0. Penn has committed 12.0 and forced 18.3 over the same span.
I expect that possession advantage to help Saint Joseph's win by at least 5.
Saint Joseph's has attempted 96 free throws to its opponents' 52. Penn's corresponding totals are 67 and 66. The Hawks have made 59 free throws while allowing 36, a 23-point advantage across those three games.