I'm taking Ball State +23.5 against SMU because the Cardinals have been earning second shots.
Against Georgia Southern and Indiana State, Ball State collected 26 offensive rebounds to its opponents' 22 and outscored them 24-11 on second chances. SMU's first 3 opponents have collected 33 offensive rebounds to the Mustangs' 31.
I expect those extra possessions to help Ball State keep the full-game deficit below 24 points. SMU has also committed 17.0 turnovers per game through 3 games, compared with 13.7 for Ball State.
Against Indiana State, Sean Blake scored 20 on 7 2-point baskets and 6 free throws, then followed with 20 against Brescia.