Timberwolves @ Nuggets

This total is still carrying too much regular-season memory for a series that has slowed down and tightened. The last four Denver-Minnesota meetings landed at 221, 233, 209 and 208 points. That means this number would have stayed under in three of the last four, including both of the last two by a wide margin.

Anthony Edwards being out is the headline

Edwards is third in the league at 28.8 points per game, and he is currently listed out with a return date of May 9. That is not a small downgrade. That is the primary shot creator and late-clock bailout scorer coming off the floor.

Minnesota still has structure, but it does not have the same offensive ceiling without him.

The recent series scores are already living below this number

Denver scored just 96 points in each of the last two games, and those games closed at 209 and 208 total points. Even the lower-scoring Denver home win in this matchup finished at 221. The only recent game that beat 222.5 needed 233 total points.

Fresh injury context leans under, not over

Denver lists Aaron Gordon as questionable, even though RotoWire still projects him in the starting group. Minnesota lists Edwards out. That is not the kind of injury board that makes an over more attractive.

Playoff version beats regular-season averages here

Denver averaged 122.1 points per game in the season sample and Minnesota averaged 118.0. Those numbers are real, but this matchup has clearly played slower and uglier once the postseason pressure kicked in. The recent game logs matter more than broad season pace when the same teams have already shown the shape of the series.

Decision

Under 222.5 is still playable because the best scorer in the series outside Jokic is out, Denver has not cracked 100 in back-to-back games, and three of the last four head-to-head meetings already stayed below this number. The current total is still a little high for what this series has become.