I like Knicks -8 because New York's offensive rebounding attacks Indiana's second-chance problem.
Through Nov. 11, the Knicks led the NBA with a 37.9% offensive rebounding percentage in 11 games. Indiana had allowed 17.8 second-chance points per game through 12, compared with 10.3 of its own. I'm expecting New York to build its margin with those extra shots.
That weakness has persisted in Indiana's last four games, when opponents scored 13, 13, 16 and 24 second-chance points.
At the other end, New York allowed 109.0 points per 100 possessions, sixth in the NBA, through 11 games. The Pacers face that defense without Tyrese Haliburton, ruled out with a left hamstring strain.
New York's last five games included four wins by 13, 30, 12 and 32 points, all beyond this spread.