Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Over 8.5 is supported by Brayan Bello carrying a 9.00 ERA and 2.27 WHIP, Eric Lauer sitting at a 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, and Toronto's last four games finishing with 11, 16, 19, and 10 runs.
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This total is playable because both starters are leaking hard, Toronto games have already been loud this week, and 8.5 is still too small when both bullpens carry absences behind shaky opening arms.
Bello is dragging ugly numbers into this start
Brayan Bello owns a 9.00 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP through five starts. He has also allowed eight home runs in 22 innings. That is a brutal profile for anyone trying to make an under case.
Lauer is not clean on the other side
Eric Lauer is sitting at a 6.75 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and 12 walks in 22.2 innings. One bad starter can ruin a total. Two unstable starters can bury it early.
Toronto's recent scores are already loud
The Blue Jays' last four games finished with 11, 16, 19, and 10 runs. Vladimir Guerrero is still hitting .340 with an .888 OPS, so the middle of this lineup is not exactly cold.
Decision
Over 8.5 is playable because the starting pitching is messy on both sides, Toronto's recent games have been wide open, and 8.5 still does not capture enough of the volatility here.
