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Sheehan is sitting on a 5.13 ERA. Peralta is at 5.01. That is why 9 is on the board, and it is also why this under feels ugly before first pitch.
I am not pretending this is some clean pitchers’ duel. Emmet Sheehan has a 5.13 ERA, Freddy Peralta has a 5.01 ERA, and both have enough recent damage in the profile to scare off an under. The part I care about is the number. A 5-4 game pushes instead of beats me, and that matters when I am betting into two starters with obvious flaws.
Peralta’s full season is not pretty, but his recent work at Citi Field is the reason I am not throwing out the under. The game preview has him at a 1.80 ERA over his past three starts at Citi Field. Against the Dodgers, he does not need to be perfect. He just needs to keep this from turning into a track meet right away.
Los Angeles is the better offense here, and the numbers say it pretty clearly. The Dodgers are listed with a .260/.341/.432 team slash and 543 runs entering the matchup. That is the part of the under that I hate. I am still not paying like a strong Dodgers offense automatically means this game clears double digits.
The Mets profile is a step down from the Dodgers side. Their listed season line is .233/.303/.381 with 424 runs. Sheehan can give up damage and this can still stay under 9 if the Mets do not turn every baserunner into a run. That is the bet inside the bet for me.
Sheehan’s recent form is the uncomfortable part. He is listed at 1-5 with a 6.37 ERA over his past seven starts, so I am not dressing this up as a safe starter angle. The reason I can still live with him is the swing-and-miss base. His season line shows 99 strikeouts in 87.2 innings with a 1.27 WHIP, and that gives him at least one way to stop Mets innings from dragging on.
Both starters got hit in their previous outing, with Sheehan allowing six runs and Peralta allowing seven. That makes the under feel gross, but it also helps explain why I am getting 9 instead of a tighter number. I would not want to force this at 8. At 9, I can absorb one bad inning and still have a live ticket.
The bullpen snapshot is another piece keeping me on the under. The Dodgers were listed with five available arms and two limited, while the Mets were listed with six available and two limited. That does not make either bullpen automatic. It just means I am not starting from the assumption that both managers are out of options late.
The Dodgers can ruin this early if Peralta does not keep the ball out of dangerous spots. Then Sheehan’s recent form can make it worse on the other side. That is the risk with any under built around two starters over a 5.00 ERA. I am taking it because the total already respects that risk.
I would not want a smaller number here. At 9, I can live with some damage, a push score like 5-4, and a game that never has to look comfortable. Peralta’s recent Citi Field work, the Mets’ weaker offensive profile, Sheehan’s strikeout base, and a usable bullpen setup are enough for me at the full number. Under 9, -120.