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Blue Jays-Red Sox under 7.5 is tight. I am not pretending there is a pile of cushion here, but Dylan Cease against Sonny Gray is a real reason to live with a low number.
Cease is listed for Toronto with a 2.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 155 strikeouts over 104.1 innings. Gray is listed for Boston with a 2.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 101.2 innings. Those are not decoration stats, they are why I am willing to ask for seven runs or fewer instead of treating 7.5 like an automatic over.
Cease has a 1.29 ERA in July and has averaged seven innings per start this month. That matters a lot on a full-game under, because the cleanest version of this bet is not begging for five relievers to survive. It is Cease taking a real chunk of the game and keeping Boston from stacking early runs.
The 155 strikeouts in 104.1 innings are the part I keep coming back to with Cease. Strikeouts do not make an under safe, but they do cut down on the cheap rally where two singles, a bad read and a blooper suddenly turn into three runs. Against a number this low, I want the pitcher who can end innings himself.
Gray has allowed one run or fewer in six of his eight starts since the beginning of June. He also comes in with nine straight quality starts dating back to the end of May. He does not need to match Cease punchout for punchout if he keeps doing what he has done lately, which is keep Boston away from an early bullpen problem.
The pick is Under 7.5 at -110, and that price matters. On a 7.5, I do not want to pay a heavier tax just because the starter matchup looks clean. At -110, I can live with the bet needing both starters to be good, not perfect.
Before this game, five of the seven current-season meetings between Toronto and Boston finished at seven total runs or fewer. I hate using head-to-head as the whole handicap, because these games change fast. Here, it is just supporting evidence that this matchup has not needed fireworks every time these teams share a field.
The listed game conditions at Fenway were clean, with no precipitation, temperatures around 78°F down to 73°F and a light east to ESE wind around 7 to 9 mph. I am not building the under on weather. I just do not see the conditions as a reason to get scared off the total.
The July 24 6-4 Boston win is the warning label. Toronto got a three-run homer in the seventh and tied it in the eighth before Boston closed it, and Toronto also used a chunk of its bullpen after the starter. If Cease or Gray leaves early, this under gets a lot less comfortable fast.
I got to Under 7.5 at -110 through the starters. Cease's July form gives Toronto a pitcher who can miss bats and work deep, while Gray's recent run gives Boston the same kind of run-prevention base from the other side. The risk is one messy relief inning or one swing with men on base, but at this price I would rather be under before paying more for the same 7.5. Under 7.5, -110.