Blue Jackets @ Canadiens

Montreal has 104 points and a 9-1 run, so the surface read is obvious. The better betting question is whether this game actually profiles like a comfortable favorite spot. The last few weeks say no. This matchup keeps getting pulled into one-goal hockey, and that is exactly the kind of environment where a live dog becomes worth a straight moneyline look.

The matchup keeps collapsing into one-goal hockey

Columbus has played 7 one-goal games in its last 10. Montreal has played 5 one-goal games in its last 10. The season series fits that same script with a 4-3 Columbus win on November 17 and a 2-1 Montreal win on March 26. That matters because Blue Jackets moneyline does not need a wide talent gap. It needs a close game with room for one swing.

Jet Greaves gives Columbus a real chance in net

Jet Greaves is the expected starter for Columbus and Jakub Dobes is the expected starter for Montreal. Greaves owns a 2.61 goals against average and a .908 save percentage across 52 games. Dobes sits at 2.69 and .904 across 41. Those are not massive gaps in a vacuum, but they matter in a matchup that already looks tight. If the goalie edge exists at all, it leans toward the dog.

Greaves already showed it in this building

The March 26 meeting at Centre Bell is the cleanest example. Montreal won 2-1, but Greaves still held the Canadiens to 2 goals. That matters more than the final result because it proves Columbus can drag this game into the exact low-event range it needs. Another three-goal night from Greaves puts the Jackets live deep into the third period.

Shot volume quietly favors Columbus

Montreal scores more overall at 3.43 goals per game versus 3.01 for Columbus. That is the stat most people will stop on. The better detail is that Columbus actually generates more shot volume at 29.3 per game while Montreal sits at 26.4. If one team is more likely to create extra looks in a close game, it is the road dog, not the favorite.

The defensive gap is far smaller than the standings say

Montreal's 104 points to Columbus' 90 makes this look like a clean class difference. The goals against numbers say otherwise. Columbus allows 3.09 goals per game and Montreal allows 3.05. That is basically the same defensive band. Once the defensive side is this close, the price on the better record starts to matter less than the actual game state.

Columbus is not a bad road team

The Blue Jackets are 19-17-4 on the road. Montreal is 24-14-2 at home, which is good, but not the kind of split that should scare every dog out of the building. Columbus has already shown it can survive away from home, and this is not a team walking into a spot where the road setting alone breaks the case.

No back-to-back edge for the favorite

Neither team played on April 10. Columbus last played April 9 in Buffalo, and Montreal last played April 9 at home against Tampa Bay. That removes one of the easiest paths for a home favorite to separate. Both expected starters should be coming in on normal rest.

Montreal's hot streak is real, but the margins stay thin

The Canadiens are 9-1 in their last 10, which is the obvious case against this pick. The part that matters more for a moneyline dog is how those games are being won. Five of Montreal's last 10 were decided by 1 goal. That is a good run, not a crushing run. When the favorite keeps living in narrow margins, the underdog does not need much to flip the outcome.

The injury board is cleaner for Columbus

Columbus lists Dmitri Voronkov as its only fresh absence. Montreal is dealing with Alexandre Carrier out and Patrik Laine on injured reserve. In a matchup that already projects tight, losing a regular on the back end matters. Carrier's absence cuts into Montreal's margin for error more than the surface market suggests.

Columbus still has enough game-breaking talent

Zach Werenski gives Columbus a genuine difference-maker from the blue line with 80 points in 72 games. Montreal has star power too. Nick Suzuki sits at 98 points in 79 games, and Cole Caufield ranks second in the league with 50 goals. That is the counterargument in one sentence. The answer is that this is not a play built on Columbus being more talented. It is a play built on the game landing in a tight range where Greaves, shot volume, and road competence can neutralize the points gap.

Decision

Blue Jackets moneyline works because the dog does not need to be better across 60 minutes. It needs this game to look like the season series and like most of Columbus' recent schedule. Close, low margin, one bounce at a time. The expected goalie numbers favor Greaves, the shot volume leans toward Columbus, and Montreal's recent surge has still been packed with one-goal results. That is enough to back the Jackets straight up.