Blue Jackets @ Canadiens

Montreal will get home-ice respect here. That part is fair. The problem is the recent form under the hood looks cleaner for Columbus, and this kind of late-March NHL game is usually decided by structure, health, and who is defending better right now. On those points, the Blue Jackets have a real case.

This is not a blind fade of the Canadiens. It is a bet that the market is leaning a little too hard into the home badge while Columbus is playing the steadier all-around hockey.

The recent records look equal. The recent profiles do not.

Both teams are 6-4 across their last 10 games. That is the surface-level read, and it is exactly why this price stays close. Once you go one layer deeper, Columbus looks better. The Blue Jackets are plus-11 in goal differential over that stretch, while Montreal is only plus-6.

That matters because it tells you Columbus is winning with a little more control. Montreal has had the same number of wins, but with more leakage. In a near pick'em matchup, that difference is enough to take seriously.

The defensive form favors Columbus.

Columbus has allowed 24 goals over its last 10 games. Montreal has allowed 30 in the same sample. Stretch that back to the full season and the gap still holds. The Blue Jackets sit at 3.04 goals against per game, while the Canadiens are at 3.21.

The special teams numbers tell a similar story. Columbus owns a 77.9% penalty kill. Montreal is at 76.3%. Neither number is elite, but if this turns into a one-goal game decided by one kill late, Columbus has been a little firmer in that department.

Columbus still brings enough offense to cash a road dog.

This is not some low-event team trying to steal one. Columbus generates 29.8 shots per game, compared with 26.6 for Montreal. That matters against a Canadiens side that has given up 30 goals over the last 10 and has already shown some defensive wobble at home.

The recent game log backs it up. Columbus scored 5 against Seattle, 6 against the Rangers, 5 against Carolina, and 3 in a road win at Philadelphia. Zach Werenski has driven a lot of that from the back end with 77 points in 64 games, which gives Columbus another layer of creation beyond the top line.

Health is a real late-season edge.

The injury board is clean for Columbus. Zero current injuries listed. Montreal has three names up, and two of them are meaningful fresh absences for this handicap. Kirby Dach is out with an upper-body issue into April, and Patrik Laine is still on injured reserve with an abdomen issue and not yet back in the lineup.

That matters because Montreal's offense is dangerous when it is whole. When it is not, the burden gets heavier on the stars and the secondary scoring gets thinner. In a game priced close, the healthier team deserves attention.

The road label is not enough to scare this off.

Montreal has been solid at Centre Bell with a 21-13-2 home record. That is the cleanest argument against this pick. Columbus is not walking in as a team that folds away from home, though. The Blue Jackets are 18-14-4 on the road, which is more than good enough for an underdog ticket.

The recent road form helps too. Columbus won 3-2 at Philadelphia on March 24 and beat Tampa Bay 5-2 on March 10. This is not a spot where travel alone should flip the handicap toward Montreal.

The first meeting already showed the basic script.

These teams have met once this season, and Columbus won 4-3. One game is not enough to overrate the season series, but it does fit the broader read on this matchup. The Blue Jackets can score enough to keep Montreal from controlling the pace, and they have defended a little better over the full season and over the recent sample.

The standings reinforce how thin this gap is. Montreal is on 88 points. Columbus is right there on 87. If the market wants to price the Canadiens as clearly safer, the table does not really support that gap.

Starting goalies are the key late variable.

The crease was still unconfirmed at publish time, so this handicap leans first on form, health, and team profile. If it turns into Jet Greaves against Jakub Dobes, the numbers do not hurt Columbus. Greaves is sitting on a 2.57 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage across 44 starts. Dobes is at 2.88 and .896 across 34 starts.

That does not guarantee a goaltending edge tonight, but it is another reason Columbus does not look like the wrong side by default just because the game is in Montreal.

The obvious Montreal case is still real.

Cole Caufield has been a problem all season. He is up to 44 goals and 76 points in 69 games, and Montreal's power play is converting at 25.0%. If the Canadiens get this game into a track meet and live on the advantage, they have the talent to punish mistakes.

That is the part of the matchup you have to respect. The better bet is still Columbus because the Blue Jackets are bringing the cleaner recent defensive form, the healthier lineup, and enough road credibility to win this game outright.

Decision

There is no huge class gap between these teams. The standings say that. The last 10 say that. What separates them is that Columbus has defended better, allowed fewer goals, and comes in with a full injury sheet while Montreal is missing real pieces.

At plus money, that is enough. Blue Jackets ML is the side because this matchup looks closer to a coin flip than the home narrative suggests, and the cleaner profile belongs to Columbus.