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The posted line, risk, and settled result.
Loss
- Pick
- Over 158.5
Oklahoma and Baylor both live in the low 80s, neutral-court totals trend high, and 158.5 still sits short of their usual game script.
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One game ago Baylor got dragged into a 67-48 rock fight with Minnesota. That is the number casuals will remember. The problem is Oklahoma is the wrong opponent if you want another slog, because this total is being set into a matchup where both teams have lived in the low 80s all season.
Oklahoma regular-season games averaged 159.8 total points. Baylor regular-season games averaged 159.7. That matters because 158.5 is not asking for a wild outlier. It is asking these teams to play right around the level their season-long profile already suggests.
That baseline gets stronger when you strip out the crowd angle and move to a neutral floor. Oklahoma's regular-season neutral-site games averaged 162.4 total points. Baylor's neutral-site games averaged 163.8. T-Mobile Arena is not a spot where one side can hide behind home-court control and grind the pace into the floor.
The Sooners are scoring 82.9 points per game and shooting 47% from the field with 36% from three. They also protect possessions, averaging only 10.3 total turnovers per game. That combination matters for an over because it removes empty trips and gives a good offense more chances to turn normal volume into real points.
Recent form has not cooled them off either. Oklahoma has scored 79 or more in 8 of its last 10 games. The Sooners just played a 90-86 postseason game against Colorado two days ago, so there is fresh evidence that this offense still travels when the stage changes.
Baylor is also sitting at 82.1 points per game on 48% shooting. The Bears are not a one-dimensional team praying for a hot three-point night. They get to the line 21.4 times per game, hit 73.2% of their free throws, and still bring enough half-court scoring to punish a defense that allows 77.3 points per game.
The recent sample is better for the over than the Minnesota game suggests. Baylor saw 6 of its last 10 games clear 158.5, including totals of 193 against BYU, 167 against Arizona, 173 against UCF, 176 against Utah, and 162 against Arizona State. The ceiling is already on the page. The only question is whether Oklahoma can pull Baylor back into that kind of game, and Oklahoma's scoring profile says yes.
These teams combine for 121.6 field-goal attempts per game. Add in 50.3 three-point attempts and you get constant scoring volatility, which is exactly what you want on a college over in the high 150s. One hot stretch can move the number fast.
The free-throw runway matters too. Oklahoma averages 21.7 attempts from the stripe and Baylor averages 21.4. Together they make 31.8 free throws per game. That is a huge cushion in a matchup projected to stay competitive, because close games do not die quietly in the final minute.
College totals can get weird when a team leaves its home gym, but these two profiles have handled neutral courts without turning passive. Oklahoma averaged 82.4 points and 162.4 total points in its regular-season neutral games. Baylor averaged 80.6 points and 163.8 total points in its neutral games. The environment did not cut the scoring floor. If anything, it left both teams playing into totals above tonight's number.
Rest also lines up cleanly. Both teams last played on April 2, so this is the same 2-day turnaround on both sides. There is no one-way fatigue edge here that should drag the game into the 60s.
That is the cleanest argument against the over, and it has to be addressed directly. Baylor beat Minnesota 67-48 in a game that never found rhythm. But Oklahoma is nothing like that matchup. The Sooners score 82.9 per game, shoot better from three than Baylor's last opponent, and have reached 79 points in 8 of their last 10 games. This is a completely different stress test.
There is also a difference between a total dying because one team cannot score and a total dying because both teams are built that way. Baylor's defensive effort against Minnesota was real. It just does not automatically transfer to a game against an Oklahoma offense that has been living near 80 as a floor, not a ceiling.
The line is asking for 159 in a matchup where Oklahoma regular-season games averaged 159.8, Baylor regular-season games averaged 159.7, and both teams have been even higher on neutral floors. Oklahoma brings the cleaner offensive profile. Baylor brings enough scoring of its own. The combined shot volume and free-throw volume give the total multiple ways to get home.
This does not need overtime and it does not need both teams to shoot 45% from three. It needs two offenses that already live in the low 80s to play a competitive game on a neutral floor. That is a much more normal script than this number suggests, which makes Over 158.5 the right side.