Rockies @ Dodgers

Freeland’s 7.25 ERA is hard to hide against this Dodgers offense. That is the whole sweat for me. If Los Angeles gets him into baserunner trouble early, I want the run line instead of paying just to win.

Freeland’s 1.60 WHIP is the number I keep coming back to

Freeland is listed at 2-7 with a 7.25 ERA, 77.0 innings, 68 strikeouts, and a 1.60 WHIP. The ERA is ugly, but the WHIP is what matters for Dodgers -1.5. Extra runners in front of this Los Angeles power is how a normal favorite spot turns into a two-run game.

The Dodgers have the offense to punish those baserunners

Los Angeles has 483 runs, 122 homers, a .347 OBP, and a .787 OPS. That is not an offense I want to give free chances to, especially when the bet needs separation. I do not need nine innings of clean hitting. I need enough pressure on Freeland to make Colorado play from behind.

The price keeps me off the expensive moneyline route

Dodgers -1.5 at -105 is the better way for me to play this angle. I am not laying a heavy favorite price just to hope Los Angeles wins by one. At this number, I would rather ask the stronger offense to turn the starter mismatch into margin.

Colorado can hit, but the Dodgers still have the better run profile

The Rockies are not a dead offense. They have 443 runs, 104 homers, a .329 OBP, and a .755 OPS, so this is not a handicap built on Colorado being helpless. The gap is still on the Los Angeles side in runs, homers, OBP, slugging, and OPS, and that gives the Dodgers more ways to stretch a lead.

Lauer only has to be fine, not perfect

Eric Lauer is listed at 4-5 with a 4.84 ERA, 70.2 innings, 44 strikeouts, and a 1.27 WHIP. I am not selling that as an ace profile. The case is that his WHIP is cleaner than Freeland’s, and the Dodgers’ offense gives him more room to survive an average start.

The Lauer recent split is the part I hate

There is a real objection here. Lauer’s last seven-game split shows a 10.80 ERA over 5.0 innings, with five hits, six earned runs, two walks, four strikeouts, and a 1.40 WHIP. If that version shows up, the run line gets uncomfortable fast.

Colorado already had to use multiple relief arms

Colorado used Brennan Bernardino, Jimmy Herget, Victor Vodnik, and Jordan Romano in its previous game, with Romano getting the save. I am not calling that a bullpen collapse waiting to happen. I just like that Freeland may not have much room to make this clean if the Dodgers start putting runners on early.

The one-run Dodgers win is the obvious miss

This can lose in a very normal way. Lauer gives some back, Freeland hangs around longer than the numbers suggest, and Los Angeles wins by one. That is the run-line tax, and I am accepting it because the Freeland matchup gives the Dodgers the first shot at making this bigger than a simple win.

Dodgers -1.5 at -105

I am laying the 1.5 with Los Angeles. Freeland’s 1.60 WHIP against a Dodgers offense with the better power and on-base profile is enough for me at -105. Dodgers -1.5.