Nationals @ Mets
Under 7.5 is supported by Cade Cavalli allowing zero home runs through 24.2 innings, Francisco Lindor remaining on the IL with Luis Robert Jr. day to day, and weather showing 53 degrees with a 10 mph crosswind.
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This total is playable because the number is already low for a reason, the weather is helping pitchers, and both lineups are still carrying enough missing punch to keep this game from turning wild.
Cavalli has one clear under angle
Cade Cavalli has allowed zero home runs through 24.2 innings this season. His WHIP is elevated at 1.66, but the damage has not been explosive.
The Mets lineup is still missing a major bat
Francisco Lindor remains on the injured list, and Luis Robert Jr. is listed day to day. That matters in a game lined at 7.5, especially with New York still sitting 3-7 over its last ten.
The park setup is not screaming offense
RotoWire has this game at 53 degrees with a 10 mph crosswind. Washington was also shut out 8-0 in the first meeting of the series, which shows how easy it is for one lineup to disappear here.
Decision
Under 7.5 is playable because the weather is modest, the Mets are still short a key bat, and Cavalli has not been giving up the long ball. In a total this low, that matters.
