Mets @ Cubs
The Mets have dropped 9 of 10 and scored only 20 total runs in that span, while Chicago just beat them 12-4 at Wrigley.
Ad | Affiliate — I may earn a commission if you sign up through these links. This never influences my picks. Learn more
This is one of those April moneylines where the cleaner answer is staring right at you. One team is sliding hard, not scoring, and missing the biggest bat in the lineup. The other just saw this opponent and tagged it for 12 runs in the same park.
You do not need a complicated pitching model to make the Cubs case. The recent form gap is already strong enough, and the lineup context pushes it further toward Chicago.
The Mets are not scoring enough to trust
New York is 1 and 9 over its last 10 games. The more damaging number is the run production. The Mets scored 20 total runs in those 10 games, which is only 2.0 per game.
That drought has been consistent, not a one-night blip. They scored 4, 2, 1, 0, 0, 6, 0, 1, 2 and 4 across that stretch. In 9 of those 10 games they finished on 4 runs or fewer, which is a rough way to walk into Wrigley against a team that just saw you yesterday.
Chicago has been the steadier side
The Cubs are 6 and 4 in their last 10. They scored 48 runs in that span, good for 4.8 per game, and they just beat the Mets 12 to 4 on April 17.
That matters because Chicago does not need to imagine the path here. It already forced this matchup into its game. The Cubs have also won games by scores of 9 to 5, 9 to 3, 7 to 1, 5 to 0 and 3 to 2 in the same recent window, which shows more than one script can work for them.
Nico Hoerner is setting the tone
Hoerner has been one of the best table-setters in this lineup. He is hitting .342 with a .420 OBP, .553 slugging percentage, 20 RBI and 6 steals through 19 games.
That matters for a moneyline because Chicago does not need one solo homer to bail it out. Hoerner getting on base in front of Bregman, Happ and Suzuki gives the Cubs a cleaner path to multiple scoring innings.
The Mets lineup is missing its biggest safety net
Juan Soto is on the 10 day injured list and that changes the feel of this order. Lindor is hitting .200 with a .609 OPS and only 1 RBI through 20 games. Pete Alonso is at .216 with a .706 OPS and 2 home runs.
Those are not the numbers of a lineup you want to back on the road while it is already losing 9 of 10. Luis Robert gives New York some juice, but the overall shape still looks thinner than the name value suggests.
The confirmed lineups still lean Chicago
The Mets are confirmed with Carson Benge, Bo Bichette, Lindor, Robert, MJ Melendez, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Marcus Semien. Chicago counters with Hoerner, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Moises Ballesteros, Miguel Amaya, Pete Crow Armstrong and Dansby Swanson.
Without Soto, the New York order asks too much from the middle. Chicago gets the deeper top of the lineup and the confidence that comes from already handling this exact opponent one night earlier.
Decision
Cubs ML works because the current form gap is wide enough on its own. Chicago is scoring 4.8 runs per game over its last 10. New York is scoring 2.0. The Mets have dropped 9 of those 10 and now come back without Soto.
That is the core of the bet. Better recent offense, better current rhythm, and a same-series matchup that already broke Chicago's way at Wrigley. At near even money, the Cubs are the cleaner side.
