Dodgers @ Padres

Dodgers just hung 15 on San Diego. That is the exact score that can drag me into paying for yesterday’s inning twice, and I’m not doing it. Under 8 at -110 is the number I’m taking for Dodgers-Padres at Petco Park.

Michael King’s 3.33 ERA is the first anchor

King is listed as San Diego’s probable starter, and his 2026 line gives this under a real starting point: 16 games, 92.0 innings, a 3.33 ERA, 78 strikeouts, and a 1.16 WHIP. That is the profile I want after Los Angeles just blew the doors off the last game. King does not have to erase the Dodgers, but he does need to keep this from turning into another one-inning avalanche.

Sheehan is risky, but the strikeouts matter

Sheehan is listed for Los Angeles, and he is not the comfortable side of this handicap. His 2026 line is 14 games, 67.2 innings, a 5.32 ERA, 76 strikeouts, and a 1.30 WHIP, so I’m not pretending the Dodgers side is clean. The under case is the strikeout piece: 76 strikeouts in 67.2 innings gives him a way to end innings before every baserunner turns into a run.

The 15-3 game is exactly why I do not want the over

The Dodgers beat San Diego 15-3 in the previous game, and that box score is loud. They put up a nine-run sixth inning and hit three home runs. I get why the first instinct is to look over, but that is also the danger. One huge inning already did the damage.

San Diego’s last pitching setup was a different game

The previous Padres pitching plan started with Kyle Hart as an opener before Randy Vasquez, then moved through Ron Marinaccio, David Morgan, and position player Rodolfo Duran in the blowout. That is not the same shape as handing the ball to King from the start. Yesterday’s damage still counts, but I’m not pricing this like San Diego is running back the exact same setup.

Eight leaves room for a normal mistake

This is not an under that needs both offenses dead. At 8, there is room for a solo shot, an early run, or one messy inning if the rest of the game stays controlled. King’s WHIP gives San Diego a chance to avoid constant stress, and Sheehan’s strikeout total gives Los Angeles a way to escape some spots. That is enough for me to stay under instead of chasing the last final.

The counter is obvious: Dodgers power can wreck it fast

The Dodgers just showed the exact way this loses. A nine-run inning and three homers in the previous game are not small warnings. Sheehan’s ERA and WHIP also leave real Padres scoring risk if he gives San Diego too many chances. If this turns into another early bullpen game, the under can get ugly quickly.

Why I’m still taking Under 8

I’m not betting that both clubs disappear. I’m betting that King gives San Diego a steadier starting point than the Padres had in the last one, Sheehan’s strikeouts keep him from completely bleeding out, and the 15-3 score is too easy to chase. At this number, I only need the game to look normal again. Under 8, -110.