Dodgers @ Nationals

The first two games in this series made the over look automatic. Los Angeles and Washington combined for 34 runs, and anybody glancing at the box scores can talk themselves into one more slugfest. That read is too lazy for this matchup. Sunday's number is still 9, but the path to that total looks different once you swap out the starters and strip Mookie Betts from the expected lineup.

Why the series totals are misleading

The loud part of this matchup came from Washington's side of the mound. Miles Mikolas got tagged for 11 earned runs in 4.1 innings on Friday, then Jake Irvin followed with 6 earned runs in 4 innings on Saturday. That is 17 earned runs in only 8.1 innings from Nationals starters across the first two games. If you are betting this total, that is the number that explains the noise better than the final scores do.

Los Angeles still had to cash in, and it did, but the shape of those games matters. Friday turned into a 13-6 game once Washington lost the strike zone and started feeding traffic. Saturday was 10-5 after Irvin put the Dodgers right back into hitter's counts. Sunday does not start from that same base.

The pitching correction is real

Roki Sasaki and Foster Griffin are not established workhorses yet, but their first looks were clean enough to matter. Sasaki opened with a 2.25 ERA over 4 innings, allowing 2 walks, striking out 4 and giving up 0 home runs. Griffin went 5 innings in his first start with a 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 5 strikeouts and 0 walks. That is a combined 9 innings, 9 strikeouts and only 2 walks from the two starters in this matchup.

That does not guarantee dominance. It does give this game a cleaner run-prevention floor than the first two meetings had. For an under at 9, that matters more than whether either starter flashes ace-level stuff.

Griffin only needs to be competent

Washington does not need Griffin to mow this lineup down. It just needs him to avoid the early free-pass disaster that blew up the series. His first outing did exactly that. No walks, a 1.00 WHIP and 5 strikeouts means he at least forced hitters to earn their way on.

That becomes more useful against a Dodgers lineup missing one of its best table-setters. Betts is listed day to day and is not in the expected lineup for Sunday. Behind the middle of the order, the projected bottom three of Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Santiago Espinal have only 7 hits and 2 RBI in 32 combined at bats this season. The top end can still hurt you, but the scoring chain is easier to break when the lineup thins out.

Sasaki does not need a shutout

Washington has a few bats with life. CJ Abrams has started 8 for 28 with a .286 average, a .982 OPS and 3 home runs. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .345 with an .862 OPS, and Brady House is at .300 with an .816 OPS. That part of the lineup is why this total is not sitting at 8.

Still, the under case does not ask Sasaki to erase every threat. It asks him to keep the game from turning into another chain reaction. James Wood is only 4 for 36 with a .111 average and a .478 OPS. Keibert Ruiz is at a .200 average with a .654 OPS. If Sasaki handles the softer half and avoids the one crooked inning, Washington can land in the three to four run range instead of dragging this game into double digits.

The environment helps the under

Conditions are not screaming offense. The forecast at Nationals Park calls for 67 degrees, 11 mph wind and a 78% rain setup. Bad weather does not hand you outs, but it can turn a clean scoring environment into a choppier game where timing is off and long at bats matter more.

That becomes more important because the Dodgers have not been living in constant track meets outside this specific matchup. Six of their first eight games have finished on 10 runs or fewer. The offense is strong, but the game environment has usually stayed within normal range when the opposing starter does not collapse early.

The obvious objection

The pushback is easy. These teams just played 13-6 and 10-5 in the same park. Ignoring that would be dumb. But those scores were built on one repeated problem. Washington got 8.1 innings from its first two starters and gave up 17 earned runs during that span. That is a specific failure, not proof that every game in this series has to turn into batting practice.

Sunday changes the entry point. Sasaki has allowed 0 home runs so far. Griffin has not issued a walk yet. Betts is out of the expected lineup. The bottom of the Dodgers order is thin. The weather is messy. Those are small edges by themselves. Together they are enough to make 9 feel high.

Decision

The number is still inflated by what happened on Friday and Saturday. That makes sense emotionally. It does not mean it is the right read for Sunday. This under is a bet on the game looking more like a normal early-season matchup than another highlight reel of early-count mistakes.

If Washington gets five decent innings from Griffin and Sasaki avoids the one blowup frame, this total has room. A 5-3, 5-4 or 6-2 type of game is live here, and that is enough reason to stay on the under instead of chasing the last two box scores.