Brewers @ Diamondbacks

Sproat is 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA and a 5.00 FIP. I am not laying a road price into that just because Milwaukee has the better overall profile. Give me Diamondbacks ML at +105 with Eduardo Rodriguez on the other side.

Rodriguez has the starter edge

Rodriguez comes in listed at 7-2 with a 2.21 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, 71 strikeouts and 102 innings through 17 starts. Sproat is sitting at 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA and 5.00 FIP. I do not need Arizona to be the better team overall. I need the starting-pitcher gap to matter enough at Chase Field while the Diamondbacks are still plus money.

Sproat's hot stretch does not erase the full number

Sproat has been better lately, and I am not pretending the two Cincinnati starts were fake. He gave up two runs over 11 1/3 innings with 17 strikeouts, so the strikeout ceiling is real. I still have to price the whole profile, and a 5.28 ERA with a 5.00 FIP is not where I want to pay for Milwaukee on the road.

Arizona already saw him once

Sproat faced Arizona earlier this season and allowed four runs on six hits and two walks over 4 1/3 innings in a loss. That does not guarantee the Diamondbacks get him again. It does make the matchup a little less blind, and if Arizona makes him work early, this plus-price ticket gets live fast.

Rodriguez has been in control lately

Rodriguez's previous three starts were wins over the Angels, Cardinals and Giants, with two runs allowed across 20 2/3 innings. He gave up 14 hits, walked six and struck out 11 in that stretch, so this is not just a strikeout binge hiding problems. He has been getting outs and giving Arizona a real chance to control the first half of the game.

The first Milwaukee start was not perfect

Rodriguez also saw Milwaukee earlier this season and allowed two runs on five hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings in a 6-2 Arizona win. The four walks are the part I hate. The part I can live with is that Milwaukee did not turn those free bases into a blown-up start, and Arizona still got the result behind him.

Milwaukee's bullpen has a workload problem

The Brewers' bullpen had to cover more than eight innings in the July 4 game. That matters behind a starter whose season numbers still carry risk, even after the two good Cincinnati outings. If Sproat is only fine instead of sharp, Milwaukee may not have the cleanest relief setup waiting behind him.

The real objection is Milwaukee's offense

This is the best reason to stay off Arizona. Milwaukee entered the series hitting .254/.339/.396 with a .734 OPS, ranked 10th, plus 436 runs and 83 steals, both top-five marks. That offense can make Rodriguez pay if the walks come back, and it can punish Arizona if the Diamondbacks waste early chances.

Arizona's bats still have to show up

The Diamondbacks entered the series with a .694 OPS, tied for 26th, even with Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado and Geraldo Perdomo in the regular mix. That is the uncomfortable part of the bet. I am not taking Arizona because the offense has been automatic. I am taking it because the price gives me Rodriguez, home field, and a Milwaukee pitching setup that is not as clean as the team gap makes it look.

The number is good enough

At +105, I am willing to take the Diamondbacks with the better starter profile and a decent setup against Milwaukee's pitching staff. Sproat can beat this if the recent strikeouts carry over and Rodriguez gives away free bases, so this is not some no-sweat dog. But with Rodriguez in better full-season form, Sproat still carrying a shaky baseline, and Milwaukee's bullpen coming off a heavy night, I want the home side. Diamondbacks ML, +105.