Brewers @ Cardinals

Cardinals +105 at Busch is the part I keep coming back to. Milwaukee has the cleaner season profile, but Game 2 of a doubleheader is not a normal favorite setup. I am not paying Brewers tax into this starter mix.

Dobbins has the cleaner MLB line, but it is only 17 1/3 innings

Hunter Dobbins comes in with a 3.63 ERA, 4.38 FIP and 19 strikeouts across 17 1/3 MLB innings. Robert Gasser is sitting at a 4.54 ERA, 4.99 FIP and 36 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. That does not make Dobbins some automatic arm, but it does make St. Louis live enough for a plus-money home ticket.

The price is not asking St. Louis to be perfect

At +105, I do not need the Cardinals to grade as the better team for the full season. I need them to be closer than the market is treating them in one home game with two doubleheader starters. That matters because this is not a clean ace-versus-call-up spot where the favorite deserves a big tax.

Gasser still gives St. Louis a real crack at damage

Gasser’s strikeout line is respectable, and I am not pretending he is some fade-only pitcher. The issue is the full MLB profile still leaves room for St. Louis to make him work, with that 4.54 ERA and 4.99 FIP sitting behind the surface. If the Cardinals get him into longer counts early, the moneyline gets a lot more interesting.

Dobbins has enough punchout in the profile

Dobbins has 19 strikeouts in those 17 1/3 MLB innings, and his Triple-A line before this spot was steady enough: 5-1, 3.79 ERA and 44 strikeouts across 59 1/3 innings for Memphis. That is not a massive sample, so I am not treating it like a finished scouting report. I just need enough evidence that he can miss bats and keep Milwaukee from stacking easy innings.

St. Louis brings the louder power number

Milwaukee entered the series with the better overall offensive shape at .255/.337/.398 and a .735 OPS. St. Louis was lower at .248/.325/.397 with a .722 OPS, but the Cardinals also came in with 99 home runs compared to Milwaukee’s 83. For a moneyline dog, that matters because one swing can cover up a lot of ordinary at-bats.

Game 2 makes the bullpen part less clean

This is the second game of a day-night doubleheader, and both teams already had bullpen pieces involved in Game 1. Milwaukee used Aaron Ashby in the eighth and Abner Uribe in the ninth, while St. Louis used Ryne Stanek, JoJo Romero and Justin Bruihl. I am not guessing who is available, but doubleheaders make late innings messier than a normal single-game setup.

The Brewers are still the obvious objection

The risk is simple: Milwaukee is good, and its offense can pressure Dobbins if he starts giving away free runners. The Brewers entered the series atop the NL Central, with more runs, a better OPS and 84 steals. If Gasser carries over his better recent stretch and Milwaukee gets into its running game, this ticket can get uncomfortable fast.

Decision

I still make the number a little too generous on St. Louis. Dobbins is not proven enough to lay anything with, but at home against a Gasser profile that still has questions, I can take the plus price. Cardinals ML +105.