Angels @ Mariners

Bryce Miller is why I am on the under first. His last seven games have been too clean to treat Angels-Mariners like an automatic 8-run ask. At 7.5, that matters.

Miller has allowed 8 earned runs in 40.1 innings

That is the first number I care about here. Miller's last seven-game split: 40.1 innings, 20 hits allowed, 8 earned runs, 4 walks, 51 strikeouts, and a 0.60 WHIP. When a starter is missing bats and barely giving away baserunners, the under does not need a miracle. It needs the game to stay clean early.

His full 2026 line backs up the recent form

This is not just one tiny hot stretch doing all the work. Miller's full 2026 line is a 1.97 ERA, 54 strikeouts in 45.2 innings, and a 0.72 WHIP. I do not need a shutout from him for Under 7.5. I need him to keep the Angels from building the kind of inning that flips the total before Seattle even gets deep into the bullpen.

Ureña only has to be solid, not Miller

Walbert Ureña is the other listed starter, and his season line is good enough for this number: 3.14 ERA across 71.2 innings with 69 strikeouts. The 1.34 WHIP is the part that keeps me honest, because he is not controlling baserunners like Miller. Still, the season run prevention is playable if he makes Seattle earn damage instead of handing it over with walks.

Ureña's recent form has risk, but it is not broken

His last seven-game split shows a 3.52 ERA over 38.1 innings with 39 strikeouts and a 1.33 WHIP. The 18 walks in that stretch are the ugly part, and I am not brushing that off. But he also had two useful recent outings around the bad one, going 5.0 scoreless at ATH and 7.0 innings with 3 earned at ARI before getting hit for 7 earned vs ATH.

The offenses are not enough to scare me off 7.5

Entering the series context, Seattle was listed at 101 wRC+ and the Angels at 99. That is not the kind of gap that makes me automatically pay for the over. With both offenses sitting near that 100 mark, I am fine making them prove they can stack multiple scoring innings against a total that still gives me the half-run above 7.

Seattle has the better run-prevention cushion

Seattle entered the series with an 88 FIP- mark from the rotation and an 88 FIP- mark from the bullpen. That matters if Miller gives them five or six strong innings and leaves the game in decent shape. The Angels' bullpen profile was weaker, so I am not treating the late innings as equal, but the Seattle side gives this under a better base than the full-game number might suggest.

The half-run is why I can live with -120

Under 7.5 at -120 is not cheap, but the extra half-run is the point. I am betting against eight runs, not asking for some dead 2-1 game to be the only way through. With Miller's WHIP and strikeout form sitting where they are, I can take the price as long as Ureña does not turn walks into Seattle rallies.

What can wreck it

Ureña's control is the obvious problem. Eighteen walks over his last seven games is enough to make any under uncomfortable, especially against a Seattle team that can turn free baserunners into one big inning. If Ureña loses the zone early or the Angels' bullpen has to cover too much, this can get away fast.

Decision

I still want Under 7.5 because Miller is the cleanest piece in the game, and Ureña has enough run prevention in the profile to ask Seattle to work for it. The walks keep this from being comfortable. That is why I am taking the 7.5 instead of pretending this has to be perfect. Under 7.5, -120.